Rolla, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

536
FXUS63 KSGF 261647
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1147 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Likely record-high temperatures today with temperatures
  around 30 degrees above climatological averages.

- Elevated to locally Significant fire danger today with hot,
  dry, and windy conditions. Additional Elevated fire danger
  through the upcoming weekend.

- Mostly light showers and a few thunderstorms move through the
  area tonight into Friday morning. Very low chance of an
  isolated strong storm capable of producing hail to quarters.

- Potential for additional rain chances and a more active
  weather pattern by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Synoptic Overview:

A prominent and well defined upper-level ridge was overspreading
the western and central CONUS early this morning. Water vapor
imagery also nicely reveals a compact shortwave ridge rider
along the western periphery of this feature. To the north,
several shortwave impulses over Canada are acting to flatten the
ridge. At the surface, a cold front is draped across the
northern Plains and extends into the Midwest.

Hot and Windy Today:

As the ridge shifts easts, anomalously warm air will continue to
advect into southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. The 00Z
SGF sounding showed 850 mb temperatures around 17 to 18 deg C,
and these values will only continue to climb today with
deterministic guidance suggesting 850 mb temperatures reaching
between 18 to 21 deg C. This warmth will correlate to surface
temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. With
the frontal passage holding off until the overnight hours and
little in the way of cloud cover, confidence in the temperature
forecast is high, and all four climate sites will likely see
their daily records broken today (see Climate section below). For
reference, the climatological average highs range from 60 to 64
degrees.

As the aforementioned cold front approaches the Missouri Ozarks
today, the surface pressure gradient will tighten, and southwest
winds will increase. At the same time, an impressive 50 to 55 kt
low-level jet will shift into eastern Kansas and western
Missouri coincident with the onset of diurnal heating and
vertical mixing. A hefty capping inversion will prevent mixing
heights from getting notably high today, but it will not take
much to mix down this higher momentum flow to the surface.
Furthermore, an upward trend in winds from both deterministic
guidance and model blends has been noted over the last 24 hours.
Strong consideration was given to the issuance of a Wind
Advisory for our westernmost Missouri and Kansas counties this
afternoon, but confidence in gusts exceeding 45 mph was not
quite high enough. That said, gusts of 40 to 45 mph are
expected for this area. Elsewhere to the east, gusts of 25 to 35
mph will be common.

These hot and dry conditions will spark fire concerns across the
region. Observations of RAWS site 10-hr fuel moisture between
7% and 10% along with ongoing wildfires and prescribed burns
suggest fuels are still receptive to fire starts. That being
said, continued gradual moisture advection will at least
partially help to keep RH values from tanking below critical
thresholds despite the anomalous warmth. Minimum afternoon
humidities will generally range between 30% to 40% across the
area. As a bit of a sanity check, the 10th percentile RHs from
the REFS--a blend with a known dry bias--suggests values may
approach 25% locally for an hour or two due to
downsloping/diabatic warming effects, but these numbers look to
be the exception rather than the rule. While humidities will
stay above Red Flag Warning criteria for much and likely all of
the forecast area, the hot and windy conditions will produce
Elevated to locally Significant fire danger today.

Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Tonight:

The aforementioned cold front will approach the region after 9
PM tonight and bring with it chances for widespread but mostly
light rain. The previous forecast discussion did a wonderful
job of thoroughly detailing why the Marginal severe risk was
removed from our forecast area yesterday, but the Storm
Prediction Center has pulled it back to the west and covers
portions of central Missouri once again. Long story short,
though, is that the better moisture, forcing, and instability
will be well to the northeast of our area across the Ohio
Valley. That being said, good mid- level lapse rates will result
in elevated instability approaching 1000 J/kg, which will be
enough for a few thunderstorms and possibly even some isolated
hail. Confidence in this hail being realized is low. Otherwise,
rainfall amounts will be light--ranging from a trace to a
quarter inch--with localized amounts up to a half inch if under
a stronger thunderstorm.

Cool and Breezy Friday:

Temperatures will be much cooler behind the front as it exits
southern Missouri Friday morning. High temperatures will
struggle to get out of the 50s for much if not all of the area.
These temperatures will be 30 to 35 degrees cooler than just 24
hours prior. Despite the cooler temperatures, Elevated to
locally Significant fire conditions will continue as northerly
winds gust to 30 to 35 mph and drier air filters in behind the
front. This will be particularly true for areas that receive
little rainfall Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The cooler temperatures on Friday will be short-lived as medium-
range guidance shows consensus in the re-establishment of the
upper-level ridge and a general warming trend this weekend into
early next week. Furthermore, RHs are already progged to be
quite low on Saturday with widespread afternoon minimums near
20%. And while moisture will be a bit better on Sunday, winds
will be stronger. All of this to say that Elevated fire
conditions will continue through the weekend.

Heading into the work week, NBM percentile data suggest medium
to high confidence in high temperatures once again climbing into
the the 80s by Monday. At the same time, ensemble clusters
depict a breakdown of the ridge and the return of southwesterly
flow aloft across the region by the middle of the week. This
setup will open the door for more rain chances and a more
active pattern overall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR flight conditions through this evening ahead of an
approaching system. Strong southwest winds through today.
Sustained winds at 10 to 20 knots, with wind gusts approaching
25 to 35 knots. Clouds will gradually be on the increase after
sunset into the overnight hours. Mid to low-level clouds
overspread the area overnight, with MVFR ceilings around 1500 to
3000 feet developing. Additionally, winds will shift on the
frontal passage, generally between 06-12Z. Winds become
northerly, with gusts persisting around 20 to 30 knots into
Friday morning. Meanwhile, scattered showers overspread the area
along and behind the frontal passage. There remains some
uncertainty on the extent of coverage, with PROB30 groups
capturing the potential through Friday morning. MVFR to some
instances of IFR may accompany this activity moving through.
MVFR ceilings persist post-frontal into the later part of the
TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 26:
KSGF: 82/2020
KJLN: 86/1910
KVIH: 83/2020
KUNO: 86/2020

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez
CLIMATE...Titus